monkeyinmymind.com

The old adage that VP candidates should do less harm than any real good seems to be in jeopardy at this point in the 2008 Presidential Campaign. Sarah Palin’s addition to the ticket has not only electrified the Republican base, but has also propelled her running mate ahead of Barack Obama in national polls. While previously, national polls putting Obama ahead of Palin’s running mate were discounted by the Palin Running Mate Campaign, now these polls suddenly seem to matter and the campaign is beginning to step with a little swagger towards the finish line, which is now just under 50 days away.

Too bad for the Palin Running Mate Campaign that the United States electoral system is not a national race, but instead, a collection of “winner take all” simultaneous state elections, in which districts and precincts matter more than national averages. Because of this, Obama still maintains the advantage, even if the election were to be held today, based on recent state polls.

The Monkey Wrong In Landslide Victory Prediction?

Several months ago I wrote a post in which I used primary results as a means to predict the national election in November. With the phenomenal voter turnout on the Democratic side, I predicted that not only would Barack Obama be elected the 44th President of the United States, but also that he would win the Presidency in an Electoral-map shifting landslide.

Of course my Monkey’s Eye View never predicted that Sarah Palin’s current Running Mate would ultimately choose her, due to her glaring lack of experience. Instead, I thought the Palin Running Mate campaign would make a big hubbub of considering a woman Governor for VP, but would ultimately go with someone with a tad more gravitas, like Condoleeza Rice, who would also have both the African American thing and the woman thing covered in one fail swoop.

What we failed to realize back in February was just how energized the Palin Running Mate campaign would be at this point. The incredible enthusiasm behind Sarah Palin’s selection has certainly shifted the balance of the race and significantly altered the conversation, especially with her ability to attract the 30% of the electorate who still thinks George Bush is handling his instructions from heaven well and the Christian Fundamentalists who seemed to be on the verge of sitting this one out, but ultimately I still believe Obama will win the day and here’s how:

A State By State Look at 2008

Oddly enough, with the new electoral map currently being rewritten by the Obama campaign, it is actually possible for him to win the Presidency without either Ohio or Florida. The following is a state by state breakdown, using the latest polling data (most of these polls concluded on Sept. 10th).

Obama Will Win:

Illinois: 21 votes

Connecticut: 7 votes

New York: 31 votes

California: 55 votes

Maine: 4 votes

Massachusetts: 12 votes

Hawaii: 4 votes

Vermont: 3 votes

Delaware: 3 votes

Rhode Island: 4 votes

Washington, DC: 3 votes

Maryland: 10 votes

Total: 157 votes locked up

Obama Will Likely Win:

Iowa: 7 votes (Obama’s polling ahead by 9 points)

Oregon: 7 votes (7 point lead)

Minnesota: 10 votes (7 point lead)

New Jersey: 15 votes (6 point lead)

Wisconsin: 10 votes (5 point lead)

Washington: 11 votes (5 point lead)

New Hampshire: 4 votes (3 point lead)

New Mexico: 5 votes (2 point lead)

Pennsylvania: 21 votes (2 point lead)

Michigan: 17 votes (2 point lead)

Colorado: 9 votes (2 point lead)

Nevada: 5 votes (1 point behind)

Total: 278 Electoral Vote

Palin’s Running Mate Will Win:

Arizona: 10 votes

Alabama: 9 votes

Tennessee: 11 votes

Arkansas: 6 votes

Louisiana: 9 votes

Kentucky: 8 votes

Kansas: 6 votes

Mississippi: 6 votes

Georgia: 15 votes

North Carolina: 15 votes

South Carolina: 8 votes

North Dakota: 3 votes

South Dakota: 3 votes

Nebraska: 5 votes (this state is one of only two states that could possibly split their electoral votes)

Texas: 34 votes

Montana: 3 votes

Oklahoma: 7 votes

Alaska: 3 votes

Utah: 5 votes

Idaho: 3 votes

West Virginia: 5 votes

Wyoming: 3 votes

Total: 178 votes all locked up

Palin’s Running Mate Will Likely Win:

Missouri: 11 votes (7 point lead)

Florida: 27 votes (5 point lead)

Indiana: 11 votes (5 point lead)

Virginia: 13 votes (3 point lead)

Ohio: 20 votes (2 point lead)

Total: 260 votes

Must Win States

In order to win the Presidency, Obama must win New Mexico, Colorado, and Pennsylvania. A win in Nevada would be nice. A win in Virginia would basically seal the deal.

For Palin’s Running Mate, he must win Ohio and Florida, bottom line. New Hampshire and Nevada would help. Colorado and Pennsylvania would seal the deal.

All of these states will be the most hotly contested and will determine the winner. But don’t let the mainstream media convince you that Palin’s Running Mate has this thing all wrapped up.

Sphere: Related Content