Writing a New Electoral Map
On the morning of March 5th 2008, in the wake of Hilary Clinton’s “Comeback Kid Version 2.0″ performance in the Texas and Ohio Presidential Primaries, I saw Joe Scarborough on his “Cup of Joe” show talk about Hillary’s resurgence and the fact that she keeps on winning in traditional “blue states,” while Barack Obama is only winning primaries in traditional “red states.” Scarborough went on further to note that Obama will never be able to win these red states in the General election if he were the Democratic nominee, especially states like Virginia, Louisiana, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, Colorado, and Iowa, which all went into the win column for Bush in 2004.
He then went on to make the point that since Hillary is winning the primary contests in all of the traditional Democratic or blue states, like New York, California, and Massachusetts, that she is doing the better job of appealing to the Democratic base that makes up the majority of the electorate in these states, and would therefore possibly be a better potential nominee than Obama.
On the surface, I can see why someone might think this, but when you take a moment to think about this idea it becomes ridiculous to think that if Obama were the eventual nominee he would somehow be incapable of winning traditional Democratic states like New York and California.
Voter Turnout Makes the Difference
On the contrary, to me it is apparent that Obama’s string of wins in these former red states, coupled with the magnitude of these wins in terms of overall voter turnout, which greatly favors Democratic candidates versus Republican candidates, indicates that there is a good chance his success in these states will portend Democratic success in these same states during the general election.
In my previous post, A Landslide Victory in 2008? Using Primary Results to Predict a Winner I break down the popular vote results of every contest so far (as of February 19th, 2008) and posit a theory that the 2008 Election will be a landslide victory for the Democratic candidate, especially if that candidate happens to be Barack Obama. I qualify this prediction as it is clear that Obama is attracting a larger number of Independents and moderate Republicans than Mrs. Clinton is attracting, and it safe to assume that not all of these Obama supporters would neccessarily vote Democrat if he is not the nominee in November.
Prediction: 60 More Electoral Votes Go To…
With the popular votes now in for the recent contests on March 4th in Vermont, Rhode Island, Texas, and Ohio, you can see the same trend of huge voter turnout in favor of Democrats continuing. I am shocked that none of the major media outlets are drawing significant attention to this fact during their Primary coverage and post-mortems.
Below, I combine the popular vote totals for Clinton and Obama to talley total Democratic votes and combine the popular vote totals for Huckabee and McCain to determine the total Republican vote:
VERMONT:
Democrat votes: 151,683
Republican votes: 34,161
Electoral Vote Prediction:
Democrat: 3
Republican: 0
RHODE ISLAND:
Democrat votes: 183,865
Republican votes: 23,307
Electoral Vote Prediction:
Democrat: 3
Republican: 0
OHIO:
Democrat votes: 2,186,831
Republican votes: 961,837
Electoral Vote Prediction:
Democrat: 20
Republican: 0
TEXAS:
Democrat votes: 2,812,289
Republican votes: 1,232,376
Electoral Vote Prediction:
Democrat: 34
Republican: 0
The numbers don’t lie. Overwhelming results for Democrats which will lead to overwhelming results in November.
Yes, I am predicting that Texas and Ohio will be won by Democrats in 2008. The only thing that might change that would be determined by who McCain picks as his running mate. Someone like Colin Powell would be very powerful on a Republican ticket and might sway voters in Texas and Ohio, states in which many active duty and retired military personnel live. So I will submit a revised prediction when his running mate is revealed.
Electoral Map Not Set In Stone
Based on the record turnout numbers in just about every contest this primary season in favor of the Democratic candidates versus McCain and the other Republicans, I have to wonder why it is still the prevailing wisdom that what was red will continue to be red and what was blue will continue to be blue.
I am not sure how long we’ve been using the terms “Red State/Blue State” but a look at the electoral maps of previous elections prior to 2000 indicate that what we commonly think of as the electoral map hasn’t always been what it is perceived to be today.
GOP candidate Ronald Reagan, for example, won practically the entire country in 1980, even supposed Democratic strongholds like New York and California (albeit as former Governor, Reagan was pretty popular in California). In 1992, Democratic candidate Bill Clinton won significant southern states like Louisiana, Tennessee, and Georgia, as well as western states like Colorado and Nevada, all states that we commonly refer to as Red States in 2008.
The point I’m getting at is that it would be healthy to reject the conventional wisdom that says things must be a certain way simply because a lot of people, particularly those in the media, say they should be that way. I think this notion applies to everyday life as well, and perhaps I’ll discuss it in a future post.
This country is changing in a way that isn’t completely clear at this particular juncture in time. Americans are demanding change and may find themselves waking up in a different country on the morning of November 5th, 2008.
RELATED POST: Who Should I Vote For?: John McCain
The voter turnout in the primaries is impressive, but it’s hard to believe that Texas will go blue this year. If it does, it’s over. Ohio will not go red this time after what they’ve been through. Ohio will come out strongly for Barack once they have an opportunity to see through the negativity.
As a Virginian, I know that the Commonwealth is turning blue. The population is becoming more diverse and highly educated. Lots of Hispanics and Asians. People like Scarborough don’t understand this shift in the red states. The Va. governor is a Democrat and Jim Webb just wrested a senate seat away from George Allen, with a lot of help from Senator Macaca. Obama could win Va. And if he takes Va. and Ohio, and hold the other blue states- it’s over.
After last Tuesday I was going though the primary results. I couldn’t care less about the Republicans and did not think to look at how many total votes McCain/Huckabee/Paul drew. Then I thought, wow look at that, nearly 3 million Texans voted for a Democrat. Isn’t Texas a die hard red state?
So I thought, gee there must have been what 5 or 6 million Texans who went to vote for the Republicans, given the Texas history for turning out the GOP vote. But it turns out that less than 1.5 million Texans bothered to vote for a Republican. What the?
I looked at Ohio, a swing state so you would think that Republicans-Democrats would be 50/50 in total votes. Wrong. It was Dems with well over 2 million, to repubs around 1 million. What the? Was again my reaction.
The only reason I came across this blog was simply I could not find anyone out there with an explanation for the massive differentiation in totals. So I googled it.
Thanks for laying this out so well. The broadcast networks and even the mainstream blogs need more people like you to point out the obvious to everyone, Obama (if the nominee) is favourable to win America perhaps like Reagan (depending on conditions). At this time the Republicans are not very attractive to voters at all.
Then again it all depends on how each candidate is defined come November.
That’s the other thing, with the economy now the top issue and likely to be come November, who looks like the better economic manager: Obama or McCain? If this poll from Ohio is right (effected by job losses/sub-prime/credit like nowhere else), the republican base of white evangelicals, are headed for the democrats…..
43% of white evangelical Christians in Ohio voted Democratic in the primary:
http://www.cleveland.com/news/plaindealer/index.ssf?/base/news/1205224373165420.xml&coll=2
[...] Davison presents Writing a New Electoral Map posted at [...]
That’s an astounding article about the white evangelicals in Ohio. Thanks for forwarding it along. Not sure if you’ve had a chance to check out the site, but we made a documentary about Ohio during 2004 and that certainly was not the case just a few years ago. From what I can tell about the mainstream media (MSM) is that no one is talking about this.
Thanks for reading!
[...] 2) in so doing, he would rewrite the red state/blue state electoral map. [...]
Apparently you failed to see that once again Texas voted almost one million more for the Republican candidate and that once again not one Democrat won a state-wide elected office. Texas is a SAFE Republican state. Your prediction that Texas will be a Democratic blue state in 2012 is hilarious. When Obama screws this country up, Texas will be more red than it is now….if we even stay in the country. Maybe we will invoke our rights to secede from the 1848 annexation treaty. Texas a blue state. WHAT CRACK ARE YOU SMOKING? Oh wait a minute, you’re a Democratic Obama supporter, you had no brain to begin with.
James,
First of all, thanks so much for reading and taking the time to comment on this post.
A couple of points:
1) Apparently you failed to see that this post was a prediction for the 2008 election, not the 2012 election. Instead of looking at polling numbers, my aim was to look at primary turnout as a means of creating a prediction for the final vote tally. This blog post was simply an alternate take on the whole process that in my opinion came pretty close to painting the picture for what the Election Day outcome would be. Obviously I was inaccurate with respect to Texas, but two other red states, Virginia and North Carolina turned blue and many others shifted dramatically towards the Democrats without necessarily going their way in this election.
2) Although it seems implausible that Texas will secede from the nation, I applaud that state’s independent spirit and history of being a Republic prior to joining the Union. The fact remains that many red states rest on the bottom rungs of a host of issues ranging from education to infrastructure. I can’t speak specifically to Texas’s prominence in these issues but certainly wouldn’t cry a river if they seceded from the Union.
3) What crack was I smoking? None and never have. Again, I was taking a shot at making a bold prediction that obviously turned out to be incorrect with respect to Texas. I take responsibility for making the wrong call here, but again, temper that responsibility with the fact that I was right about VA, NC, and OH, as well as several close races in Indiana and other firmly Red states.
4) Finally, your point about being a Democratic Obama supporter with “no brain to begin with” while funny to you isn’t necessarily accurate. Have a look at my voting history here, and you’ll find that I am not a Democrat, but instead a progressive, independent, Constitutionalist. I support Ron Paul and I even voted for your boy, George W. Bush in 2000. I am a fifth-generation West Pointer and served for 6 years in the Airborne Infantry as an officer so somebody thought I’ve had a brain at some point.
That being said, I’m certainly opinionated and support intelligent debate, but let’s try to refrain from personal attacks against people we don’t know. I welcome a discussion about the merits and potential pitfalls of an Obama Presidency and I hope that you may re-visit the blog at least to check out my personal development insights or my discussion of the NFL, even if you can’t stomach my politics.